Reverse Schlep Blindness

Ever insightful, Paul Graham, recently wrote about Schlep Blindness, a phenomenon related to overlooking hard and unpleasant problems:

Why work on problems few care much about and no one will pay for, when you could fix one of the most important components of the world’s infrastructure? Because schlep blindness prevented people from even considering the [difficult] idea of fixing payments [that Stripe is doing].

I completely agree with Paul. However, I also tend to think that there’s a reverse schlep blindness at play in a lot of cases. Some startup founders often subconsciously ignore or avoid problems that seem too simple to solve. They would rather work on complex problems, requiring complicated architectures, plethora of ‘cool’ technologies and ‘beautifully’ intricate code, all of which few care much about and no one will pay for. Maybe it’s another form of schlep, a cognitive bias after all.

Yet another mobile website builder? Too simple to be “ground breaking”. Yet another Web form builder? Too easy, I’ll look naive. Yet another cloud platform for developers? A VPS is enough and there’s Heroku for everything else. Yet another blogging platform? Boring, most use WordPress anyways. A bingo card creator? Naaa.

‘Too simple to do’ doesn’t mean that it’s easy to build, easy to sell and unfeasible as a business because one might think there aren’t any paying customers for it. Such markets are often overlooked and eventually existing competition suffers a slow death due to lack of innovation and new ideas.

Hard problems are good, because both good and bad solutions to those tedious problems will result in learning, eventual innovation and disruption. Simple problems are good too, because their execution will require a radical (yet simple) solution, and that’s hard to do in itself.

Someday, Everyone Will Be a Programmer

Over the past few decades, Computer programming has ignited gallons of technological innovation, disrupting one industry after the other. For as long, programming has been a skilled task, a niche profession, art of sorts too. It has also made good programmers a rare breed. But I’ve started to imagine that in the coming years everyone will be able to program.

“Give a man a fish and he will eat for a day. Teach a man to fish and he will eat for the rest of his life.”

Most people already program their devices as end-users to a tiny extent, be it an iPhone or the heating thermostat. But a more diverse level of programming will reach the masses, sooner than one might think. It won’t be the same as one would perceive writing complex computer code. It will be more intuitive.

At the moment, the majority of programming is profit or research oriented. The mass programming that I anticipate will primarily be self-serve. Want your refrigerator to automatically order a watermelon and some cold beverages for home delivery based on periodic weather forecast checks? Just program it through your tablet. Want to replace a broken part in your juicer mixer? Just program the 3D printer to make a new one right at home. Want the carpet vacuumed before the in-laws arrive in the evening? Just program the personal robot at home to do so while you are at work.

This emergence is already being made possible due to:

1. Open hardware initiatives, that make device integration and prototyping easier than ever, like Arduino, Raspberry Pi, SparkFun, Seeed Studio, GTA04, Pandora Handheld, and its all going to be huge.

2. Global ‘Learn to Code’ initiatives, that encourage programming as a fun activity for all, like Code Year 2012 (where 333,628 people have already enrolled at the time of writing this post), the UK government introducing programming lessons into British schools, and ‘The Academy for Software Engineering‘ – New York City’s first public high school that will actually train kids to develop software, and even the One Laptop per Child (OLPC) project will reach out to kids in under-developed nations.

3. Visual programming tools, that enable a simplified approach to developing applications, will also help accelerate the adoption of the self-serve programming culture, a bit like ifttt I suppose. But their UI/UX will take a few more years to achieve mass appeal.

4. Community support – Years ago I read somewhere that “Institutions will try to preserve the problem to which they are the solution.” I believe programmers and hackers are not such institutions. We like to share, teach and learn in the process. The sheer volume of open source projects out in the wild is an evidence of this. The existing programming community will help thrive the Long Tail of mass programming.

Computer Science may remain to be for the elite, but someday, soon, self-serve programming is going to become a common man’s Swiss Army Knife.

Dope.com

Compulsive, disillusioned, aloof at times, hooked on to new ideas, craving for the next shot. In the dark depths of “The Valley”, they sniff on domain names. Despite suffering from a distortion in perceptions of time and space, there’s nothing quite like inhaling that volatile $9.99 stimulant from “Go Daddy”, the peddler. However, the psychoactive state through an intravenous injection or inhalation only lasts for a short while. And then, the withdrawal symptoms kick-in.

Most aspiring startup entrepreneurs are like drug addicts.

Drug addiction, or “substance dependence”, is dangerous. SUBSTANCE dependence. What has started bothering me lately is that many of my fellow dopey technologists are depending on something that has no substance at all, thereby feeling gloomy due to inaction and eventually it results in tragic cases of product abandonment and morale deprivation.

There are disturbing stories of intervention and rehab all over these days. One such testimony comes from “Sean” (name changed), who confesses:

I’m turning 30 and I’ve produced no amazing art.

Sean has ideas, lot’s of shimmering new ones. Incurably, he has procured domain names (over 300 now!), probably one (or more) for each one of them. But he feels he hasn’t done anything meaningful yet. This is a rather common psychedelic syndrome. Sean, and many others like him, are getting trapped by the thought, rather than the action. The realization is a good thing, because it can induce intervention.

A lot of these domain addictions occur due to, what we in the non-medical profession call, the first snort — viz. the recurring thought that the name is so important that it must come above & before all.

The name of your product is, and will always be, secondary to the product itself. The domain name is hugely overrated. It’s like naming your baby before you’ve even graduated from high-school. What it also does is that it creates a psychological barrier. Now that you’ve found a great name (great in your mind), you have to push yourself to build an equally great or even better application. Great, amazing, incredible, best, awesome, are all narcotic fences that restrict you (but look so good in keynotes by Apple Laboratories).

I QUIT HEROIN FOR THIS BABY BLUE

My fellow dopey technologists, The Crazy Ones, don’t get caught-up with the masturbation of your ideas. It’s pleasing, I know. But, don’t abuse your talent. Don’t take comfort in thoughts and imaginary applications. Find solace by finding customers, who will pay for a problem-solving product, not your idea or your domain name or that 3-page hypothesis you wrote about your new Spell Checker using Node.js and Haddop.

Say no to domain names until you can stand up on your feet with a simple working prototype or an MVP.

Say no to drugs.


P.S. Ironically, dope.com is a placeholder, that will probably sell for millions.